In North: The Future of Post-Climate America, Jesse Keenan draws a rich and compelling portrait of how climate change is shaping where Americans live, which factors are shaping climate mobility, and what can be done to steer this transformative change towards more sustainable and equitable outcomes.   

Extreme heat, stronger storms, and other dimensions of climate change are making regions like the US Southwest and Gulf Coast less livable, Keenan contends. This marks an important shift: the trajectory US regional and urban growth during the second half of the twentieth century had a southerly orientation. For decades, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Houston, Tampa and Atlanta have been among the fastest growing cities in the US. Many of the fundamental advantages that fueled this growth – like favorable tax policies or labor laws, first-time public infrastructure investments, or accessible finance for housing – are diminishing as these places mature. The spatial development of these cities has been marked by sprawling auto-dependence, often in ways that have ignored or exacerbated ecological vulnerabilities. Think of the intensive urbanization of Florida’s coast, which is total home to trillions of dollars of property yet is acutely exposed to rising seas and stronger tropical cyclones. In conjunction with climate change, the futures of these places may be less bright, Keenan argues.   

In contrast, regions with comparative climate advantages – like more mild seasonal extremes, or access to fresh water – may be poised to benefit from future growth. In many cases, these include the very places in the US North that saw growth slow or decline as the South boomed. From Minnesota to Vermont, many communities have now attracted attention as would-be “climate havens.” Several of these communities have seen outsized population growth in recent years, generating new pressure on their physical and social infrastructure. 

Sending and Receiving

For Keenan, North isn’t a spot on the map: it’s a propositional orientation and invitation to consider how spatial advantages and human mobility intersect in a climate-changing world. Research often shows that those displaced by natural disasters relocate relatively close by, often within a region rather than across a content. It is perhaps better to think in terms of “sending” and “receiving” communities. In Florida, Keenan points to the inland boomtown of Ocala, famous for rolling hills and farm estates, as a potential climate haven well-positioned to receive displaced coastal residents. Previously, Keenan has also illuminated how “climate gentrification” plays out within an urban region, as perceptions of climate risk and resilience reshape property market dynamics. 

Extending this thinking, Keenan offers a spectrum of profiles of who will—and who won’t—be able to move in as climate change unravels the livability of neighborhoods, cities, and regions. On one side, there are the most privileged: those with the means to opportunistically move to places with comparative lifestyle advances. On the other, there are those without the (economic) capacity to act, who may be stranded in communities that face deteriorating conditions. 

Concerns and opportunities

North also explores how individual choices are embedded in institutional and systemic forces. Keenan is particularly concerned with how the public sector and markets shape climate mobility. There remains very limited government policy on climate adaptation in the US at the national, state, or local levels. Of thousands of local municipalities, Keenan contends that only a handful have meaningful adaptation plans grounded in substantive investment. 

This absence of direct public action on adaptation leaves the market as a strong force for change. Keenan illuminates how financial institutions—insurers, lenders, and other capital providers—are actively incorporating climate risk into their underwriting and investment decisions. These institutions are engaged in what Keenan has called a “climate intelligence arms race,” and have started to price risk and shift capital accordingly. These dynamics are likely to be a major force for climate mobility, as living in vulnerable regions becomes increasingly unaffordable.  

The profound economic, social, and ecological shifts envisioned by Keenen are also, in his eyes, opportunities for spatial practitioners. Designers and planners have a key role to play in creating sustainable and inclusive strategies for accommodating this mobility, according to Keenan. Infill development and other smart growth concepts have a renewed role in helping cities to accommodate these changes, for example.

Lessons for the Dutch delta

While the US and Dutch contexts are very different, Keenan’s propositions offer rich opportunities for comparative reflection. For example, if US development is increasingly turning to the ‘North,’ could the Netherlands also have a shift to the ‘East’? Concerns over the long-term livability of the west of the Netherlands are already considered in various scenarios, including those of the Sea Level Rise Knowledge Program of the National Delta Program. Physical climate processes, but also technological limits and economic and financial constraints shape if, how, and when the country may need to look to higher ground. Today, analysis suggests that staying in the low-lying urbanized west of the country remains the logical choice. 

Looking to the present day, and to the level of individuals and neighborhoods, research suggests that flood risks do affect property values in the Netherlands, but only in a transient fashion—for now. However, in the long run, this may shift if losses become more frequent. In contrast, urgent issues like land subsidence and home foundation failure—connected to, but not primarily driven by climate change—are already forcing residents, cities, and other stakeholders to take action to maintain the livability of neighborhoods in a climate-changing delta. Several of the institutional dynamics and social equity issues that Keenan charts in the US are now shaping the adaptation agenda in the Netherlands, too.

These dynamics call for integrative approaches to managing climate risks in the delta—taking on board multiple institutional, sectoral, disciplinary, and scalar perspectives to better grasp and weigh action perspectives. Red&Blue provides a knowledge platform for scientists, policymakers, and practitioners to unravel these complexities and reflect on how stakeholders and continue to take collaborative action at the urban area scale. 

Text by Zac Taylor and Tom Daamen
Picture by Annelies van ‘t Hul Fotografie